NEW POLL SHOWS ERIC ADAMS LEADING MAYORAL RACE

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New York, NY– A poll released today by Change Research shows Eric Adams again at the top of the field in the race for New York City mayor. Adams led the rest of the mayoral candidates at 19%. (poll attached)

In a ranked-choice simulation, Adams also led after vote redistribution. And the poll showed Adams with the most strength among African American voters.

“Clearly Eric Adams has the momentum in this race, driven by everyday New Yorkers who agree Eric can deliver a safer, fairer, more prosperous city for all,” said campaign spokesperson Evan Thies.

METHODOLOGY

Change Research surveyed 1422 likely Democratic primary voters in New York City from May 6-12. 

We used the following sources to recruit respondents: 

  • targeted advertisements on Facebook
  • targeted advertisements on Instagram
  • text messages sent, via the echo19 platform, to cell phone numbers listed on the voter file for individuals who qualified for the survey’s sample universe, based on their voter file data

Regardless of which of these sources a respondent came from, they were directed to a survey hosted on SurveyMonkey’s website. 

 

Ads placed on social media targeted all adults living in New York City. Those who indicated that they were not likely to vote in the June 2021 Democratic primary were terminated. As the survey fielded, Change Research used dynamic online sampling: adjusting ad budgets, lowering budgets for ads targeting groups that were overrepresented and raising budgets for ads targeting groups that were underrepresented, so that the final sample was roughly representative of the population across different groups. The survey was conducted in English.

The survey was conducted online by Change Research. The survey was part of a larger study that included questions about other topics not included in this report. Post-stratification was performed on age, gender, education, race/ethnicity, and borough. Weighting parameters were based on the demographic composition of likely Democratic primary voters, obtained from the voter file. That is, if a given age bracket or gender group represented x% of past Democratic primary voters in similar elections on the voter file, then that same group would be weighted to x% in this survey.” 

 

The modeled margin of error* for this survey is 2.6%, which uses effective sample sizes** that adjust for the design effect of weighting.

* We adopt The Pew Research Center’s convention for the term “modeled margin of error”(1) (mMOE) to indicate that our surveys are not simple random samples in the pure sense, similar to any survey that has either non-response bias or for which the general population was not invited at random. A common, if imperfect, convention for reporting survey results is to use a single, survey-level mMOE based on a normal approximation. This is a poor approximation for proportion estimates close to 0 or 1. However, it is a useful communication tool in many settings and is reasonable in places where the proportion of interest is close to 50%. We report this normal approximation for our surveys assuming a proportion estimate of 50%.

** The effective sample size adjusts for the weighting applied to respondents, and is calculated using Kish’s approximation (2).

(1) https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2018/01/26/for-weighting-online-opt-in-samples-what-matters-most/

(2) Kish, Leslie. Survey Sampling, 1965.

For more information, contact Ben Greenfield at ben@changeresearch.com.

REPORTED QUESTIONS

If the Democratic primary election for Mayor of New York City were held today, who would be your first choice? [Randomize]

Aaron Foldenauer

Dianne Morales

Scott M. Stringer

Raymond J. McGuire

Maya Wiley

Paperboy Prince

Art Chang

Kathryn Garcia

Eric Adams

Isaac Wright Jr.

Shaun Donovan

Andrew Yang

Joycelyn Taylor

Not sure

If you had to choose, who would be your first choice? [Randomize]

Aaron Foldenauer

Dianne Morales

Scott M. Stringer

Raymond J. McGuire

Maya Wiley

Paperboy Prince

Art Chang

Kathryn Garcia

Eric Adams

Isaac Wright Jr.

Shaun Donovan

Andrew Yang

Joycelyn Taylor

Not sure

Would not vote

[IF FIRST CHOICE SELECTED] And who would be your second choice?

[Include all candidates except first choice]

[IF SECOND CHOICE SELECTED] And who would be your third choice?

[Include all candidates except first and second choices]

 

[IF THIRD CHOICE SELECTED] And who would be your fourth choice?

[Include all candidates except first three choices]

[IF FOURTH CHOICE SELECTED] And who would be your fifth choice?

[Include all candidates except first four choices]

[IF FIRST CHOICE SELECTED] How certain are you that [first choice] will be your first choice?

Absolutely certain

Pretty certain, but could still change my mind

About 50-50

Good chance I’ll end up voting for someone else

If the Democratic primary election for Public Advocate of New York City were held today, who would be your first choice?

Theo Chio

Jumaane Williams

Not sure

[IF NOT SURE] If you had to choose, who would be your first choice?

Theo Chio

Jumaane Williams

Not sure

Would not vote

If the Democratic primary election for Comptroller of New York City were held today, who would be your first choice?

Brian Benjamin

Michelle Caruso-Cabrera

Zachary Iscol

Corey Johnson

Brad Lander

Terri Liftin

Alex K. Pan

Reshma Patel

Kevin Parker

David Weprin

Not sure

[IF NOT SURE] If you had to choose, who would be your first choice?

Brian Benjamin

Michelle Caruso-Cabrera

Zachary Iscol

Corey Johnson

Brad Lander

Terri Liftin

Alex K. Pan

Reshma Patel

Kevin Parker

David Weprin

Not sure

Would not vote

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